Why Rahul Gandhi Must Evolve to Stay Electorally Relevant

Rahul Gandhi: A Crisis of Electoral Relevance

The recent defeat of the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) in the Maharashtra assembly elections came as a shock to many. The election results not only left the increasingly weak national opposition stunned but also surprised many. Despite this loss, the electoral loss did not faze Rahul Gandhi, seemingly. Some might even praise his equanimity in the face of defeat, but there is merit in feeling unsettled by such losses and then doing something about it. However, there is no evidence that Gandhi has a strategy to win.

His indifferent attitude was visible in December 2022 during the Gujarat Assembly elections when Rahul Gandhi was seemingly busy with the Bharat Jodo Yatra. He seemed to have forgotten the fact that during the 2017 elections to the Gujarat assembly, Congress was on the threshold of victory, with the vote count resembling a snake-and-ladder game. On many occasions, as happens in the game, Congress crossed the 100-seat mark many times but strangely settled down to 77 seats. Even at that time, there was a murmur of protest, and many election petitions were filed, but due to the lackadaisical attitude of the Congress leadership, nothing came of it. What is particularly surprising is that Rahul Gandhi and the Congress party did not learn anything from the 2017 experience.

Expectedly, the Congress lost the 2022 Gujarat Assembly elections. The results gave enough evidence that the Gujarat model, which had given Narendra Modi its sheen to help win the national polls, was dimming, and the people of the state were desperate to break free from the BJP's deathly hold. As elucidated above, while the Congress was busy with the Bharat Jodo Yatra, it bothered to question, "Isn't Gujarat also a part of India?" Was Rahul Gandhi's detachment from the 2022 elections coincidental or deliberate? This question must be answered.

Why does it seem that in 2022, Congress seemed to hand over Gujarat to the BJP? After all, Rahul did not even campaign. It was like fighting a war without a commander leading the army. It was apparent that Modi could not accomplish the record Congress had set in 1985 when it won 149 seats without cooperating with the BJP. As Rahul Gandhi displayed cultivated disinterest in Gujarat, the party also did not disappoint. Congress slithered to only 17 seats from a high of 77 seats in the 2017 elections, with the BJP setting a record with 156 seats.

The troubling question for the Congress is why it performs well once and not the next time. Why does it find it difficult to retain its support among the masses and legislators? For instance, in the 2022 Himachal Pradesh Assembly elections, Congress won 40 seats out of 68. Yet, in the February 2024 Rajya Sabha elections, Congress candidate Abhishek Manu Singhvi lost in a tie. Similarly, Congress governments in Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, and Rajasthan failed to deliver in subsequent Lok Sabha elections.

In Telangana, Congress won 64 out of 119 seats in 2023, securing 39.4% of the vote share. However, in the Lok Sabha elections, Congress and BJP tied at 8 seats each, even though BJP had only 13.9% of the vote share in the Assembly polls. What's the electoral logic in this? Why does this pattern of gross mismatch occur only in states with a direct Congress-BJP rivalry? How is it managed by those in the ruling party? Did Congress make an attempt to ascertain how BJP got so many seats with such a low percentage of votes?
Rahul Gandhi continuously criticises Adani, accusing him of exploiting citizens’ rights, but remains silent when Adani donates ₹100 crores to a university through Congress’s Telangana CM, Revanth Reddy. Though the donation was later turned down, the inconsistency raises questions about the party’s strategy and intentions. Many voters must be wondering how Adani is fine investing and financing projects in Congress-ruled states but not when supporting the BJP government. This ambivalence hurts Congress's star campaigner and his high-pitched narrative.

In Maharashtra, the Maha Vikas Aghadi won 31 out of 48 Lok Sabha seats but bizarrely managed to secure only 45 out of 288 Assembly seats. While Congress’s candidate won the Nanded Lok Sabha seat, it is befuddling why it lost all six Assembly seats within the same parliamentary constituency. Is it possible for voters to make a distinction between the parliament seat and Assembly seats consistently only when BJP is contesting? Could these anomalies have been limited or stopped if Rahul Gandhi had given more importance to the Maharashtra elections than Wayanad, where his sister, Priyanka Gandhi Vadra, was contesting?

Was Rahul Gandhi following some unwritten agreement that suggests the Congress would have to lend primacy to the alliance partner at its own expense? If that’s the case, then Rahul should know that this approach is leading the party to its marginalisation and, finally, its decimation.

It’s high time Rahul Gandhi woke up to this reality and answered many difficult questions from his supporters—many of whom belong to the minorities and oppressed classes who heeded his call and supported his party and the INDIA alliance in the parliamentary elections, which came close to winning it. He also has to answer for his manifest inconsistency in countenancing the results of different elections. For instance, if he believed electoral malpractice occurred in Haryana, why did he not show greater vigilance in Maharashtra?